967
FXUS01 KWBC 161934
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
333 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2023
VALID 00Z SUN SEP 17 2023 - 00Z TUE SEP 19 2023
...CONDITIONS IMPROVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS LEE
EXITS INTO ATLANTIC CANADA...
...SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE START OF THE WORKWEEK FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LEE CONTINUES ON A NORTHWARD TRAJECTORY THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA AND THE BAY
OF FUNDY, WHILE PRODUCING MODERATE RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
EASTERN MAINE. AS LEE EXITS INTO ATLANTIC CANADA TONIGHT, RAINFALL
AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER,
IMPACTS FROM DANGEROUS SURF AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS EVENING THANKS TO LEE'S MASSIVE WIND FIELD.
SCATTERED TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE
STRONG WINDS, ESPECIALLY THROUGHOUT PARTS OF MAINE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MAINE, WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.
DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL BE REPLACED WITH UNSETTLED
WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A PAIR OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS SWING
EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST AND DEEP SOUTH. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AS SCATTERED DOWNPOURS ENTER
INTO SENSITIVE TERRAIN, WHILE ALSO MOVING AT A RELATIVELY SLOW
PACE. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF
COAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL AID IN CONTINUING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM FLORIDA TO SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING, WITH THE
THREAT SHIFTING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY.
THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING, AS WELL AS AN
ISOLATED RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES (ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE ON SUNDAY). BY MONDAY, A
MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND MAY TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT TO PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THIS WATERLOGGED REGION.
MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
WORKWEEK. MEANWHILE, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY, WITH HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND WHEN COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHWEST
MONTANA ON SUNDAY.
SNELL
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