845
FXUS01 KWBC 170757
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2023
VALID 12Z SUN SEP 17 2023 - 12Z TUE SEP 19 2023
...SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR THE EAST COAST
WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
AND NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER ON
SUNDAY...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A PAIR OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS
APPROACHING THE EAST COAST WILL LEAD TO A WET SUNDAY FROM FLORIDA
NORTH THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY FOR THE CAROLINAS AND
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, WITH THE RISK FOR SOME ISOLATED OCCURRENCES
OF FLASH FLOODING. THE RAIN WILL SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST FURTHER SOUTH AND AN ORGANIZING AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST HELPS TO FUNNEL MORE MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. LINGERING STORMS SHOULD MOSTLY CLEAR
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PASSING OF THE FRONTS
WILL USHER IN SOME COOLER, FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES MORE BROADLY
OVER THE NORTHER TIER OF THE EAST, WITH 60S AND 70S FOR THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST
SUNDAY SPREADING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND MORE SEASONABLE FURTHER SOUTH WITH
80S INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND LOW 90S IN FLORIDA.
MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN U.S. UNDERNEATH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO THE NORTHERN TIER. FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY ARE IN THE 80S TO LOW
90S FROM THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN EAST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. SOME GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AS WELL DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PROMPTED A CRITICAL
RISK OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) SUNDAY FROM THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN MONTANA, WITH AN
ELEVATED RISK (LEVEL 1/3) FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO REMAIN ELEVATED ON MONDAY. THE HOTTER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY WITH
MORE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S. A COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD BRING IN SOME MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. ELSEWHERE, HIGHS WILL BE MORE SEASONABLY
WARM FOR LATE SUMMER, WITH 60S AND 70S ALONG THE WEST COAST, 80S
FROM CALIFORNIA EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN, MID-80S INTO THE
MID-90S FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
90S TO LOW 100S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
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