076
FXUS01 KWBC 171920
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
319 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2023
VALID 00Z MON SEP 18 2023 - 00Z WED SEP 20 2023
...SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ALONG THE EAST COAST CONFINE TO NEW
ENGLAND ON MONDAY...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES RETURN TO PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES SPREAD FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...
A PAIR OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD WET
WEATHER UP AND DOWN THE EAST COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AN ISOLATED TORNADO, AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF GEORGIA, SOUTH
CAROLINA, AND NORTH CAROLINA. FARTHER NORTH, MOSTLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS AND PUSHES NORTHWARD. MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND
HAS EXPERIENCED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY, WHICH LEADS TO
MANY AREAS BEING MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO INSTANCES OF FLOODING. A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR MONDAY FROM EASTERN CONNECTICUT TO MAINE DUE TO THE THREAT OF
A FEW INCHES OF RAIN WITHIN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE REMINDED TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND
AVOID DRIVING THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. THANKFULLY, THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND EXIT THE REGION BY EARLY
TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
LINGERS OVER THE REGION, SPARKING WIDESPREAD DAILY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.
THE OTHER PART OF THE COUNTRY WITH NOTABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OFF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTERACTING WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHWEST TEXAS AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
WHILE COOLER AUTUMN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY, ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS TO START THE WORKWEEK
INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT
PLAINS, WHICH IS UP TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHEN COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY.
SNELL
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