072
FXUS01 KWBC 190800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 19 2023
VALID 12Z TUE SEP 19 2023 - 12Z THU SEP 21 2023
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
...ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH
MID-WEEK...
...SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES AS WELL AS SOME CHILLY FALL
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST MID-WEEK...
AN ACTIVE TUESDAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE
THREAT FOR BOTH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL/SCATTERED
FLASH FLOODING. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING OVER THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES WILL FAVORABLY INTERACT WITH A WARM FRONT AND VERY
MOIST GULF RETURN FLOW, LEADING TO ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) FOR NORTHWEST TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA WHERE SOME GUSTY, DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL AS THE
EXPECTATION STORMS WILL BEGIN TO CONGEAL/GROW UPSCALE INTO THE
EVENING WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE RISK FOR SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL
2/4) IN EFFECT. STORM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LOWER
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST, BUT SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. LATE SUMMER HEAT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST MORE BROADLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH MID-WEEK AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACH 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS IN THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S
ARE FORECAST FOR THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH UPPER 80S TO MID-90S FOR THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH AND BRINGS INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
MEANWHILE, SOME RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TUESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MORE BROADLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW
DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA AND A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGERS IN THE REGION. POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND
ENHANCED LIFT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LOW MAY LEAD TO SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THE RISK FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES. THE
UPPER-LOW WILL ALSO BRING SOME MUCH COOLER, CHILLY FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES, WITH MOSTLY 60S FORECAST FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOME LOCATIONS
WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN REACH 60. HIGHS WILL REMAIN MORE SEASONABLE
TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT/UPPER-LOW WITH 60S AND 70S FOR
COASTAL CALIFORNIA, 80S FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS EAST
INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AND 90S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY JUST
BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST. A SWEEPING COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THE LAST COUPLE DAYS WILL LEAVE MOSTLY DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL. FORECAST
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO
VALLEY EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH LOW TO
MID-80S FOR THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE UPPER 70S AND SOME LOW 80S EXPECTED FOR THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. DAILY ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA WHERE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
DRAPED ACROSS THE PENINSULA. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
EXPECTED AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN
URBAN AREAS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.
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