449
FXUS01 KWBC 191957
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2023
VALID 00Z WED SEP 20 2023 - 00Z FRI SEP 22 2023
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE STORM CHANCES FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT FORECAST FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THE NORTH SIDE
OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT AND SURFACE LOW OVER OKLAHOMA TONIGHT
AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WHERE HIGHER RAINFALL RATES WITH THE
CONVECTION MAY LEAD TO SOME INSTANCES OF FLOODING. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME ABATEMENT ACROSS THIS REGION GOING BEYOND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT NEARBY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLOW MOVING FRONT ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM OREGON AND NEVADA
EASTWARD TO MONTANA AND EVENTUALLY THE DAKOTAS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS
LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RANGES OF IDAHO, MONTANA, AND
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL ALSO HOLD TRUE FOR
THE CASCADE RANGE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NATION, UNSETTLED WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
THURSDAY AS COPIOUS MOISTURE CONVERGES NEAR A STALLED OUT FRONT,
WITH A SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY JUST
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS AND EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FURTHER GOING INTO
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH RAINFALL REACHING THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNSEASONABLY WARM
ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND LATE SUMMER HEAT WILL ALSO
LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. FALL WILL MAKE ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH CONSIDERABLY COOLER CONDITIONS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/LOW BUILDS IN OVERHEAD, WITH SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING
BELOW FREEZING.
HAMRICK
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