647
FXUS01 KWBC 220751
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2023
VALID 12Z FRI SEP 22 2023 - 12Z SUN SEP 24 2023
...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND MARINE
HAZARDS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
...BOUTS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S., INCLUDING CHANCES FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...
...SUMMER HEAT REMAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WHILE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
A DREARY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS RAIN
BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
DESIGNATED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AS POTENTIAL TOPICAL
CYCLONE SIXTEEN AND IS FORECAST TO ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL STORM
BY TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING ONSHORE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ON
SATURDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES NORTHWARD, TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
MID-ATLANTIC COASTS, WHERE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED. GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE SWELLS ALONG BEACHES WILL LIKELY
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS. COASTAL FLOODING DUE
TO STORM SURGE IS ALSO A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODS AND ISOLATED URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE GREATEST
RISK FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL IS LOCATED BETWEEN CAPE FEAR
AND THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA, CLOSEST TO WHERE THE CENTER
OF A POTENTIAL TROPICAL STORM MAKES LANDFALL. EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA IS ALSO UNDER A THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES AS BANDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THIS
SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH WEAKER AS IT INCHES NORTHWARD OVER THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. HEAVY RAIN MAY LINGER
FROM THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH
CONTINUED STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG COASTAL REGIONS.
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL U.S., A POTENT SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND COMING TO A CRAWL OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED TO CREATE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. SOME STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH THE SEVERE THREAT BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ALONG A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY FROM THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
THIS AUTUMN STORM SYSTEM, STARTING TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OVERLAPPING WITH THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AREA ON SATURDAY. SOME REPEATING ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, LEADING TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS. BY MONDAY, THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY
RAINFALL CHANCES SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX REGION.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THE FINAL FULL WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC,
NORTHEAST, AND WESTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. IN FACT, CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PRODUCE
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE, SUMMER CONTINUES TO
HANG ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOW 100S ALONG THE U.S.-MEXICO
BORDER. THANKFULLY, A COLD FRONT APPROACHING BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY
MONDAY, WITH ONLY SOUTH TEXAS LIKELY REMAINING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
SNELL
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