191
FXUS01 KWBC 222021
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT FRI SEP 22 2023
VALID 00Z SAT SEP 23 2023 - 00Z MON SEP 25 2023
...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SQUALLY HEAVY
RAIN, THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING FARTHER INLAND, AND STORM SURGE TO
COASTAL COMMUNITIES UP THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...BOUTS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S., INCLUDING CHANCES FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...
...SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WHILE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE THROUGHOUT THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS UPGRADED THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TO TROPICAL
STORM OPHELIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA IS MORE EXPANSIVE THAN AN ORDINARY
TROPICAL STORM AS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWARD
OVER THE WARM WATERS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTS THROUGH TONIGHT,
WHILE UNDERGOING CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
A COOL UPPER TROUGH SLIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. A DREARY AND
WINDY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE FULL FORCE OF THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS WILL BE FELT. COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO STORM SURGE WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN AS TONIGHT PROGRESSES AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH CAROLINA EARLY ON
SATURDAY WHEN OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE THE STRONGEST AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL. MEANWHILE, THE STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO DUMP THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER--FROM MUCH OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND EVENTUALLY UP INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND,
CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED FLASH FLOODS AND ISOLATED
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AND JUST WEST OF THE
STORM TRACK FROM NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA, ACROSS
EASTERN MARYLAND AND DELAWARE, AND THEN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY. BY SUNDAY, OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME MUCH WEAKER AS
IT INCHES NORTHWARD OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND GRADUALLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. SOME
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER FROM THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH CONTINUED STRONG AND
GUSTY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALONG COASTAL REGIONS.
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL U.S., A POTENT SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND COMING TO A CRAWL OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED TO TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SOME STORMS MAY TURN SEVERE INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WITH THE SEVERE
THREAT BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSOURI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NEAR AND AHEAD OF AN
ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THIS STORM SYSTEM THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTHEAST, OVERLAPPING
WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA ON SATURDAY. SOME REPEATING
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL
WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, LEADING TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS. MEANWHILE, HIGH-ELEVATION WET SNOW OVER NORTHWESTERN
WYOMING ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TAPER OFF
BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THE FINAL FULL WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER IS
HIGHLIGHTED BY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC,
NORTHEAST, AND WESTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. IN FACT, CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE COLD ENOUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO PRODUCE
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. ELSEWHERE, SUMMER CONTINUES TO
HANG ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD PEAK IN THE LOW 100S ALONG THE U.S.-MEXICO
BORDER. THANKFULLY, LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO KNOCK
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY MONDAY, WITH ONLY SOUTH TEXAS
LIKELY REMAINING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
KONG/SNELL
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