551
FXUS01 KWBC 230755
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2023
VALID 12Z SAT SEP 23 2023 - 12Z MON SEP 25 2023
...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS
WEEKEND...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH
TONIGHT...
...SUMMER HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WHILE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A WET WEATHER PATTERN ENTERS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
A COOL, DAMP, AND BLUSTERY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC AS TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA MOVES NORTHWARD THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. OPHELIA REMAINS A RELATIVELY LARGE
SYSTEM, WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING AS FAR AS 270
MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE STRONGEST WINDS (UP TO 70 MPH) CLOSER
TO THE CORE OF THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TODAY, WITH SCATTERED TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES
POSSIBLE. THE LARGE WIND FIELD WILL HELP PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MARINE
HAZARDS AND STORM SURGE CONCERNS ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE.
STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM ALONG A
NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL COASTAL
FLOODING POTENTIAL AS FAR NORTH AS LONG ISLAND. STORM SURGE AND
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRANSPORT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO
LOCALLY CONSIDERABLE FLASH AND URBAN FLOODING IMPACTS FROM NORTH
CAROLINA TO NEW JERSEY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS
(THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING) ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA, WHERE ISOLATED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AROUND 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY SUNDAY AS IT NEARS
SOUTHERN MARYLAND, WITH HEAVY RAIN REMAINING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC FROM SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO LONG
ISLAND. CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPROVE BY MONDAY ACROSS THE
REGION OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS.
ACTIVE WEATHER IS ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AS A
POTENT FALL STORM SYSTEM CREATES CHANCES FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A
COLD FRONT MAY OVERLAP AND/OR EXHIBIT SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT AS
THEY ENTER EASTERN OKLAHOMA, NORTHEAST ARKANSAS, AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA VALID THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTAIN LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THIS
SEVERE THREAT OVERLAPS WITH THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF MISSOURI. HEAVY RAIN AND POTENT STORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AS FAR NORTH AS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA, CLOSER TO A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BY
SUNDAY, THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONFINE TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE, RECORD-BREAKING HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND PARTICULARLY THE LONE STAR STATE UNTIL TEMPERATURES
RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE ON MONDAY. HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND
LOW 100S WILL LINGER FOR THE FINAL FULL WEEKEND OF SEPTEMBER,
CHALLENGING AND FEW DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS TEXAS
AND PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. MEANWHILE, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN WILL USHER IN
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA.
SNELL
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