166
FXUS01 KWBC 232009
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
408 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2023
VALID 00Z SUN SEP 24 2023 - 00Z TUE SEP 26 2023
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SECOND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAIN AND
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BEFORE DISSIPATING...
..AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC, THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MONDAY EVENING. OPHELIA WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY. THEREFORE, THE
WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. FURTHERMORE, MANY
STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
ON SUNDAY, THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER
PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND
SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
BY MONDAY MORNING, OPHELIA WILL MOVE OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH OPHELIA
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. FURTHERMORE, MANY STREAMS MAY
FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
FURTHERMORE, AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS, WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI,
AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF HAIL TWO
INCHES OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE REGION.
ON SUNDAY, AS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE
WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SMALL SECTION OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SMALL
SECTION OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
LASTLY, SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CALIFORNIA WILL REDUCE AIR QUALITY
OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA, PROMPTING AIR QUALITY WARNINGS
OVER THE AREA.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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