561
FXUS01 KWBC 240749
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
349 AM EDT SUN SEP 24 2023
VALID 12Z SUN SEP 24 2023 - 12Z TUE SEP 26 2023
...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES EXIST
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ARKLATEX REGION TODAY...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...
...WET WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ENTER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...
...ONE MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS TO END THE WEEKEND...
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA, NEARBY ARKANSAS, AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS AND THE ARKLATEX. A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
SINKING SOUTH WILL SPARK ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE
ARKLATEX, WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAIN
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH OVERLAPPING THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD CREATE
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODS. THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THREATS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MONDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY.
OPHELIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS NOW CONSIDERED A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG AN ATTACHED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY AS IT STRETCHES
FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. A FEW
INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AND TO THE
NORTH, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS IN EFFECT. SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBAN REGIONS. ADDITIONALLY, ROUGH
SURF AND COASTAL FLOODING DUE TO STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE UNTIL
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM EVENTUALLY SLIDES FURTHER EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.
ELSEWHERE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
WET AND COOL WEATHER IS ALSO ANTICIPATED TO ENTER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF THIS
RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS AREAS BEGIN TO RECOVER FROM SEVERE TO
EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HEAVY RAIN COULD LEAD TO IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEBRIS FLOWS FROM THIS SEASON'S BURN SCARS ACROSS
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST OREGON, WHERE FLOOD WATCHES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
SUMMER CONTINUES TO HANG ON AFTER AUTUMN EQUINOX THROUGHOUT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE
TODAY UNTIL EFFECTS FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT USHER IN
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR LATE-SEPTEMBER. HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S COULD TIE OR BREAK A FEW DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS. HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS
OF TEXAS TODAY IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY
REACHING UP TO AROUND 110 DEGREES.
SNELL
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