421
FXUS01 KWBC 250747
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2023
VALID 12Z MON SEP 25 2023 - 12Z WED SEP 27 2023
...HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING
EXISTS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH TUESDAY...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO SET UP OVER FLORIDA THIS WEEK...
...A FEW ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST
THROUGHOUT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
MIDWEEK...
THE START TO A NEW WORKWEEK WILL INCLUDE A FEW POCKETS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT GENERALLY FEATURE A TAME FALL WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS CONUS. A SLOW-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINNING
IN THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WILL HELP SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
MOVE RELATIVELY SLOWLY AND POTENTIALLY CONTAIN INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES, INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TODAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA, NORTHEAST IOWA, AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. HERE, A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED. RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY OVER
THE MIDWEST, WITH MORE CHANCES FOR LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES,
AND EVENTUALLY ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY.
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN SEVERE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS. LARGE
AND HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. MEANWHILE, FLORIDA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE AN AREA
WHERE INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
SEVERE STORMS. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SUNSHINE
STATE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED AS THE WEEK GOES ON,
WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF CONTAINING
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OVER MUCH OF FLORIDA AS WELL AS INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN
GEORGIA, WITH URBAN AREAS MOST AT RISK FOR RAPID WATER RISES
DURING DOWNPOURS.
A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC OCEAN HAS HELPED USHER IN EARLY SEASON BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
TO MUCH OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SPREADING INLAND TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS OF OREGON AND WASHINGTON EXPERIENCING
SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN CONTINUOUS ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ONE AREA WHERE TOO MUCH RAIN COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING CONCERNS IS ACROSS SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS IS DUE TO RECENT BURN SCARS IN THE AREA THAT ARE
UNABLE TO RETAIN HEAVY RAINFALL, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO DEBRIS
FLOWS.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND WEST COAST, WHERE A
COMBINATION OF RAIN, WIND, AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOL. A COASTAL STORM GRADUALLY EXITING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN WHILE UNDERNEATH A POTENT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING OVER
EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP FUNNEL EASTERLY WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT TODAY. CONVERSELY, ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
(SPANNING FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH), WHERE
HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S WILL BE COMMON.
SNELL
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