875
FXUS01 KWBC 280746
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
345 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2023
VALID 12Z THU SEP 28 2023 - 12Z SAT SEP 30 2023
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY...
...WET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGHOUT FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWEST...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...
DAMP AND DREARY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST BY
THIS EVENING AND LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFFSHORE. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL HELP A STREAM
ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AFTER LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT, POCKETS OF HEAVIER
RAIN MAY DEVELOP BY FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN NEW JERSEY AND WESTERN
CONNECTICUT. A LOCALIZED AREA OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE MAY PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT CONTINUING DOWNPOURS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONALLY, ANY INSTANCES OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO MOVE QUICKLY AND
COULD LINGER OVER THE SAME REGION FOR HOURS. AS A RESULT, FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO BE ISSUED FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY TO
SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT, INCLUDING THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND LONG
ISLAND. URBAN LOCATIONS, WHICH ARE PREVALENT IN THIS AREA, WILL BE
MOST PRONE TO RAPID WATER RISES AND FLOODING CONCERNS. RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AND NEVER DRIVE
THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTING AND HEAVY RAIN. INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS, MAINLY
OVER URBAN CORRIDORS, WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTED BY A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
POCKETS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ARE ALSO IN THE FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, UPPER MIDWEST,
NORTHWEST, AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST, A
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIVING INTO THE WEST COAST BY SATURDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER DAYS OF
SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES. COOL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD
SPAN FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA,
NORTHERN CASCADES, AND NORTHWEST MONTANA COULD SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL AS UPPER LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL TO AROUND FREEZING.
MEANWHILE, ONE MORE DAY OF WET WEATHER CONDITIONS IS ANTICIPATED
OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TODAY AS A WEAKENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND STATIONARY FRONT LINGER OVER THE REGION. A FEW
STORMS COULD OVERLAP AND CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FOR KENTUCKY AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS ARE ALSO IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY
ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SATURDAY OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WET TEXAS AS ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THESE PARTS OF
THE COUNTRY.
OUTSIDE OF THE COOLER CONDITIONS LOCATED THROUGHOUT THE WEST,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST, A MAJORITY OF THE NATION WILL SEE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUILD INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FOUND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PARTS OF MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HERE ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S,
WHICH EQUATES TO AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE-SEPTEMBER. AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 80S AND 90S WILL ALSO
STRETCH INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AS WELL AS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SNELL
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