068
FXUS01 KWBC 281836
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
235 PM EDT THU SEP 28 2023
VALID 00Z FRI SEP 29 2023 - 00Z SUN OCT 01 2023
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS NEW JERSEY,
SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
..CONTINUED WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO EXPAND ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF
THE WEST, WHILE SUMMER TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE NATION...
...PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF CALIFORNIA ON
SATURDAY WITH SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN SIERRA...
AN INCREASINGLY WET WEATHER PATTERN FORECAST TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG THE COASTAL
MID-ATLANTIC, INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW WILL BE
SPREADING AREAS OF RAIN INLAND ACROSS NEW JERSEY, SOUTHERN NEW
YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY, BECOMING HEAVY AT
TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE SO THROUGH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE OVERALL SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE LOW WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINS TO AFFECT NEW JERSEY,
SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, INCREASING THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED AREAS.
THE RECENT WET WEATHER PATTERN OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE OVERALL PATTERN SUPPORTING
THESE RAINS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE APPRECIABLY. ABOVE AVERAGE
MOISTURE VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHEASTWARD ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT REMAINS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT FORECAST TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WITH ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVY RAINS FALL ACROSS
URBANIZED REGIONS.
BIG TEMPERATURE CONTRAST WILL CONTINUE FROM THE WEST COAST INTO
THE MIDDLE SECTION OF THE NATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL HELP PROPEL A
STRONG COLD FRONT EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS CALIFORNIA
AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS CALIFORNIA
AND THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A BROAD AREA FROM
CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES 15
TO 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN AVERAGE ON SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY FROM IN THE
VICINITY OF LOS ANGELES, SOUTH TO SAN DIEGO AND INLAND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY. THIS BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION
TO THE STRONG FRONT BRINGING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE WEST, PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREADING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
SATURDAY. WHILE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
HEAVY, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY PRODUCE SNOWS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN SIERRA.
IN CONTRAST TO THE COOL WESTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES, SUMMER LIKE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE LOWER 48
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES, THE
PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY AND GULF COASTAL STATES.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COAST.
ACROSS MUCH OF THESE REGIONS, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST INTO
THE 90S GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ORAVEC
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page