404
FXUS01 KWBC 290805
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2023
VALID 12Z FRI SEP 29 2023 - 12Z SUN OCT 01 2023
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...MODERATE SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS ABOVE
9000FT ON SATURDAY...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS
OF CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY...
ON FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, NEW YORK, THEN PUSH
EASTWARD OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. THE LOW WILL
PULL MOIST AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC, PRODUCING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY, EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK STATE/LONG ISLAND, AND CONNECTICUT. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED
HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.
FURTHERMORE, MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER
RIVERS. IN ADDITION, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER FLORIDA AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY
WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK FRONT OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH SUNDAY.
FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER CALIFORNIA, CREATING AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW BY
SATURDAY EVENING. RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT FRIDAY, THE RAIN WILL
MOVE INTO CALIFORNIA AND PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS, SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP OVER PARTS OF
THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY, THE RAIN MOVES INTO
PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHILE AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000FT,
MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS WITH
RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. MOREOVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS OF
CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.
AS THE DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE COUNTRY'S WESTERN HALF,
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL AID
IN CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY NIGHT,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
ZIEGENFELDER
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