108
FXUS01 KWBC 020739
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
339 AM EDT MON OCT 02 2023
VALID 12Z MON OCT 02 2023 - 12Z WED OCT 04 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AND OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHERN ROCKIES...
ON MONDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY, MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL POOL OVER
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL
STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
ON TUESDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY TO A BROAD AREA OF MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH
HEAVY RAIN.
IN ADDITION, AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS, SHOWERS
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. UNDER THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, RAIN AND, AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS, MODERATE
TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM
THE GULF COAST TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
BE 15 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES, THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY.
FURTHERMORE, A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY, CREATING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LASTLY, ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL AID IN PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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