895
FXUS06 KWBC 051914
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU OCTOBER 05 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 11 - 15 2023
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES DUE TO RECENT
MODEL SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH, ASSOCIATED
WITH 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES, OVER ALASKA AND THE EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC, WHILE AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS
UNITED STATES (CONUS). TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER HAWAII.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS, AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PLAINS, ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND/OR ABOVE-AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (IN EXCESS OF 60 PERCENT) ARE
INDICATED OVER MONTANA. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND NEW ENGLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF
TEMPERATURE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. CONVERSELY, A TILT TOWARD
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS NEAR AND
BEHIND THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE, THE PROXIMITY OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC FAVORS COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF
ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL-TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER SOUTHEASTALASKA,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. FARTHER SOUTH,
COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SUBNORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE BIG ISLAND, BUT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND HIGHER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
THE TROUGH PREDICTED ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC ENHANCES THE LIKELIHOOD OF WET
WEATHER IN THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO BRING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN PARTS OF MAINLAND ALASKA.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE SOUTHWEST, THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES, WESTERN TEXAS, AND SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND
ECMWF PRECIPITATION REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. FARTHER EAST, THE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
COVERING HAWAII SHOULD FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A PERSISTENT 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 13 - 19 2023
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS.
STRONG TROUGHING AND BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECASTED OVER THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODELS. RIDGING AND POSITIVE
500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS,
AND A TROUGH AND BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. NEGATIVE 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA, WHILE POSITIVE 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN ALASKA. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE HAWAII ISLANDS.
THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK PERIOD. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES, ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (IN EXCESS OF 60 PERCENT)
ARE INDICATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. A TILT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED)
UNDERNEATH A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. IN ALASKA, CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE DUE TO MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION, WHILE
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA, SUPPORTED
BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TOOLS. IN HAWAII, TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED
TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
THE TROUGH PREDICTED ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC ENHANCES THE LIKELIHOOD OF WET
WEATHER IN THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO BRING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN
NORMAL TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN PARTS OF MAINLAND ALASKA. THE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE
REGION. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS
AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF
PRECIPITATION REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. MEANWHILE, THE PERSISTENCE OF
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AROUND HAWAI’I CONTINUES TO FAVOR LESS
PRECIPITATION THAN NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A PERSISTENT 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20081011 - 19830930 - 19680922 - 19850921 - 19811012
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19850921 - 20081010 - 20030914 - 19680921 - 20030919
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 11 - 15 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA N B IOWA N N MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 13 - 19 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA A B IOWA N B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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