786
FXUS01 KWBC 060738
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
337 AM EDT FRI OCT 06 2023
VALID 12Z FRI OCT 06 2023 - 12Z SUN OCT 08 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...
...THERE IS A FREEZE WARNINGS/WATCHES OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
SATURDAY EVENING. MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO POOLING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE RAIN FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON FRIDAY THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD WITH THE
FRONT OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, ON FRIDAY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL CREATE RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST,
WITH LAKE-ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
MOREOVER, IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
SUNDAY. THE HIGH WILL USHER COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER THE REGION. THE
COLD TEMPERATURES HAVE PROMPTED A FREEZE WARNINGS/WATCHES OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS PROMPTED WIND ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, T. S. PHILIPPE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND BECOME A POST TROPICAL CYCLONE BY
SATURDAY EVENING. POST TROPICAL CYCLONE PHILIPPE IS THEN FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE FROM
THE ATLANTIC WILL STREAM NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON
SATURDAY, PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST FROM
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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