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FXUS06 KWBC 061912
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI OCTOBER 06 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 12 - 16 2023
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES DUE TO RECENT
MODEL SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A MID-LEVEL TROUGH, ASSOCIATED
WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES, OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC, WHILE AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER HAWAII.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
RIDGING AND/OR ABOVE-AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (IN EXCESS OF 70 PERCENT) ARE INDICATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF
TEMPERATURE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. CONVERSELY, A TILT TOWARD NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS NEAR AND BEHIND THE STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH. MEANWHILE, THE PROXIMITY OF
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTH PACIFIC FAVORS COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL-TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST
TOOLS. FARTHER SOUTH, COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR
NEAR- TO BELOW-TEMPERATURES OVER THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII, BUT A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AND HIGHER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.
THE TROUGH PREDICTED ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC ENHANCES THE LIKELIHOOD OF
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST COAST. THE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO BRING MORE
PRECIPITATION THAN NORMAL TO SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
MAINLAND ALASKA. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE
WESTERN CONUS, PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND UPPER GREAT LAKES, UNDER PREDICTED RIDGING AND CONSISTENT WITH THE
GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. THE TROUGH
PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FARTHER SOUTH
AND WEST, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE COVERING HAWAII SHOULD FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A PERSISTENT 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 14 - 20 2023
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS.
STRONG TROUGHING AND BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECASTED OVER THE
EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODELS. RIDGING AND POSITIVE
500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS,
AND A TROUGH AND BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. NEGATIVE 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA, WHILE POSITIVE 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF ALASKA. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE HAWAII
ISLANDS.
THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK PERIOD. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES, ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES (IN EXCESS OF 70 PERCENT) ARE INDICATED OVER
WESTERN MONTANA. A TILT TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR MOST
OF THE EASTERN CONUS (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED) UNDERNEATH A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. IN ALASKA, CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
INCREASED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN, AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE DUE TO MEAN
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION, WHILE NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER PARTS OF WESTERN ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECAST TOOLS. IN HAWAII, TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED TO BE NEAR- TO
BELOW-NORMAL ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.
THE TROUGH PREDICTED ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC ENHANCES THE LIKELIHOOD OF WET
WEATHER IN THE WEST COAST FROM PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTHWARD TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE TROUGH SHOULD ALSO BRING MORE PRECIPITATION THAN NORMAL
TO EASTERN ALASKA. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS AND PARTS OF WESTERN
ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION REFORECAST
CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. MEANWHILE, THE PERSISTENCE OF ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
AROUND HAWAI’I CONTINUES TO FAVOR LESS PRECIPITATION THAN NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF
THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A PERSISTENT 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
OCTOBER 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19850922 - 19971014 - 19640921 - 20061006 - 20030920
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19850922 - 20020922 - 20030924 - 20021013 - 20030915
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 12 - 16 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B N OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA N B IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS B A LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 14 - 20 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS N B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS N B
MINNESOTA A B IOWA N B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE A A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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