521
FXUS01 KWBC 072001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT SAT OCT 07 2023
VALID 00Z SUN OCT 08 2023 - 00Z TUE OCT 10 2023
...REMNANTS OF PHILIPPE TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...
...MUCH COOLER, FALL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST
BEFORE A STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN, WITH A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT
LAKES THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, TRAILING
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE, THE
EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF PHILIPPE WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARDS THE COAST OF MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA. TWO CORRIDORS OF
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SATURDAY. ONE
WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM NEW YORK
CITY NORTHWARDS INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND VERMONT WHICH SHOULD
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY THIS EVENING, AND ANOTHER WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO EASTERN MAINE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACH OF THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF PHILIPPE. A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE RISK
OF SOME SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING, MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN MAINE
CORRIDOR WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FOR NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY, LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG FAVORED
CORRIDORS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, WITH SOME POTENTIALLY LOCALLY
HEAVY TOTALS ESPECIALLY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. FURTHER SOUTH,
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS WELL AS THE
COLD FRONT SLOWS AND STALLS IN THE VICINITY, WITH SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE AND AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLOODING IN THE
URBAN AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AND MORE FALL-LIKE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND WITH UPPER TROUGHING REMAINING OVERHEAD. THE GREAT LAKES WILL
BE THE MOST BELOW AVERAGE, BY AROUND 10-15 DEGREES, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 40S. HIGHS WILL OTHERWISE RANGE FROM
THE 60S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE 70S IN THE SOUTHEAST AND ALONG THE
GULF COAST INTO TEXAS. SOME FROST ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S. A BIT FURTHER WEST,
CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH 60S
AND 70S AND EVEN SOME LOW 80S AFTER A CHILLY SATURDAY MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EAST, A RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER THE WEST SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND EVEN SOME RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS
POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S AND 80S IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND ROCKIES TO THE 90S IN INTERIOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WHILE CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST MONDAY, A
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC WILL ENTER APPROACH NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY INTO THE DAY
MONDAY, WITH RAINFALL OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE REGION BY MONDAY
EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ARRIVE WITH HIGHS DROPPING
INTO THE 60S.
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