347
FXUS01 KWBC 081944
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
343 PM EDT SUN OCT 08 2023
VALID 00Z MON OCT 09 2023 - 00Z WED OCT 11 2023
...COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER TO ARRIVE ON THE WEST COAST MONDAY,
BUT ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH TO REMAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
WEST...
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S., WITH LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS IN THE GREAT
LAKES...
...POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING FOR THE TEXAS GULF COAST TUESDAY FOLLOWING SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE...
IT HAS BEEN A VERY WARM, ABOVE AVERAGE, AND EVEN HOT WEEKEND FOR
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WEST WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HOWEVER, A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST
PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY MORNING,
BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COASTAL RANGES AND THE CASCADES. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
FOLLOW, WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. A SECOND
SYSTEM APPROACHING BY LATER TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP RAINFALL
CHANCES UP INTO MID-WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST, WITH 70S AND LOW 80S
FOR THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN AND 90S FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
DESERTS.
LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN FAVORABLE DOWNWIND
LOCATIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AS A CLOSED UPPER-LOW REMAINS
ANCHORED ABOVE THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MUCH BELOW AVERAGE AS WELL, WITH
GENERALLY COOLER FALL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS WEEKEND. FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY
ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S FOR THE GREAT LAKES, WITH 60S FROM THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTHEAST, AND 70S FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
CONDITIONS WILL TREND A BIT WARMER TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE VERY LOW OUTSIDE OF THE GREAT LAKES
EXCEPT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY MONDAY FOR THE PLAINS, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE HIGH PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND AT OR BELOW AVERAGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, BY AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL SIXTEEN IN THE
PACIFIC. A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS INTO TUESDAY EVENING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN PLACE FOR THE RISK OF SOME
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
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