873
FXUS01 KWBC 090800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT MON OCT 09 2023
VALID 12Z MON OCT 09 2023 - 12Z WED OCT 11 2023
...COLDER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHIFT FROM THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS...
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WHILE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BRING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY...
WARM/HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE WEST COAST
TODAY AS A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES INLAND. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, WESTERN
OREGON/WASHINGTON LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER TODAY COMPARED
TO SUNDAY FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN WASHINGTON, BUT
LOCATIONS FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE DAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE WESTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY AS THE
FIRST CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN, CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH SNOW FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (10 TO 25
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE) WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH MID-WEEK.
A SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW ALOFT, CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES, WILL KEEP COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST TODAY. LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL ALSO PERSIST
DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES, BUT RAINFALL INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHTER THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED OVER THE WEEKEND. THE COOLER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO MID-WEEK FOR THE GREAT
LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AS THE CLOSED LOW REMAINS IN
PLACE.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S., A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE
TEXAS GULF COAST. MEANWHILE, WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HURRICANE
LIDIA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN WESTERN
MEXICO TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF INTERIOR MEXICO, THE
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TIED TO LIDIA AND TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM
TOWARD TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE SPECIFIC
DETAILS REMAIN UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME, PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS
COULD RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, SOME OF
WHICH COULD FALL AT A HIGH INTENSITY, SUPPORTING A RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS.
OTTO
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