686
FXUS01 KWBC 091735
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
134 PM EDT MON OCT 09 2023
VALID 00Z TUE OCT 10 2023 - 00Z THU OCT 12 2023
...COLDER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHIFT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WHILE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY...
...SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BRING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BRINGING PRECIPITATION MOSTLY IN THEIR WAKE
TO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SNOW
EXPECTED AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS IN THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES, PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS,
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, AS WELL AS THE MIDWEST. THE
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORN BELT COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (10 TO 25 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE) WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH MID-WEEK.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S., A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY AS A CONVECTIVE, POSSIBLY HYBRID LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF
MOVES NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH TIME TO A POSITION OFFSHORE
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. LIDIA
AND MAX MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT. PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS
COULD RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, SOME OF
WHICH COULD FALL AT A HIGH INTENSITY, SUPPORTING A RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS, WITH AREAS DOWNSTREAM ALONG THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF COAST POTENTIALLY RECEIVING
SIMILAR HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SIMILARLY ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD RISK
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A SLOW-MOVING CLOSED LOW ALOFT, CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES, WILL KEEP COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE FORECAST
INTO MID-WEEK FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST.
ROTH/OTTO
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