901
FXUS01 KWBC 100725
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
325 AM EDT TUE OCT 10 2023
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 10 2023 - 12Z THU OCT 12 2023
...COLDER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MOVE EAST FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH MID-WEEK WHILE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHIFT INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS...
...SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BRING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS, BRINGING PRECIPITATION INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST,
INTERIOR WEST AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
MID-OCTOBER AVERAGES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
SUPPORTING ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (MAINLY
7000+ FT) OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST.
AS THE RELATED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY. HEAVY RAIN FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S., A WARM FRONT IN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG WITH A SURGE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE, PARTLY DUE TO TROPICAL MOISTURE ALOFT IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO. PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS COULD RECEIVE A FEW INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, SOME OF WHICH COULD FALL AT A HIGH INTENSITY,
SUPPORTING A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE GULF, A FEW INCHES OF RAIN AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RATES, WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO
SOUTHERN ALABAMA/GEORGIA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, SHOWERS AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A SLOW-MOVING
CLOSED LOW ALOFT, CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THE
CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEPARTING EASTWARD ON THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A TEMPORARY IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OTTO
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