570
FXUS02 KWBC 110700
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT WED OCT 11 2023
VALID 12Z SAT OCT 14 2023 - 12Z WED OCT 18 2023
...EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT FOCUS TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
SATURDAY...
..GUIDANCE EVALUATION/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST SPREAD REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IN A PATTERN WITH SEEMINGLY BETTER THAN
AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY FOR FLOW EVOLUTION AND MAIN EMBEDDED
WEATHER FOCUSING STORMS/SYSTEMS. THE WPC PRODUCT SUITE WAS
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A COMPOSITE BLEND OF BEST CLUSTERED
GUIDANCE IN THIS PERIOD OF THE 12 UTC ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET AND
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ALONG WITH THE COMPATIBLE 01 UTC
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS. SHIFTED TO THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AT LONGER
TIME FRAMES AMID GROWING BUT REASONABLY MANAGEABLE FORECAST
SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY IN A PATTERN WITH MORE AVERAGE PREDICTABILITY.
WPC PRODUCT CONTINUITY IS WELL MAINTAINED WITH THIS FORECAST PLAN.
A COMPOSITE OF LATEST 00 UTC GUIDANCE SEEMS OVERALL IN LINE WITH
THIS FORECAST SCENARIO.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
A DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW AND DEEPENED SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL
SYSTEM STILL SLATED TO STEADILY TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND TO THEN
REFORM AS A COASTAL STORM AND MARITIME THREAT. THIS WILL SPREAD
HEAVY RAINS THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE NORTHEAST AS MOISTURE INFLOW IS SUSTAINED WITH DEEP INFLUX
FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE WPC DAY 4/SATURDAY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK DEPICTS A "MARGINAL RISK" AREA FOR THIS REGION. EXPECT
ENHANCED WINDS FAR AROUND THIS MULTI-PHASED SYSTEM. ENERGIES WILL
ALSO THEN CONTINUE TO DIG INTO AN AMPLIFYING/UNSETTLING EASTERN
CONTINENT UPPER TROUGH POSITION EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK TO THE LEE OF
AMPLIFIED/WARMING UPPER RIDGING FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM, A COMPLEX SERIES OF SYSTEMS
WILL ACT TO AMPLIFY AN EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH POSITION AND
ALSO BRING MOISTURE INLAND TO FUEL MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
FOR THE NORTHWEST, BUT PARTICULARLY FAVORED TERRAIN OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IN A WET PERIOD LATE WEEKEND/NEXT WEEK.
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST, EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK,
WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES, HEAT INDICES AND KEY
MESSAGES ARE AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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