698
FXUS01 KWBC 110758
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 AM EDT WED OCT 11 2023
VALID 12Z WED OCT 11 2023 - 12Z FRI OCT 13 2023
...COLDER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TO MOVE EAST FROM THE WESTERN U.S.
INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WHILE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHIFT INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY...
...INCREASED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS
OF NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ALONG THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TODAY AND THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY,
EMERGING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THURSDAY. BEHIND THE EASTWARD
MOVING ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF 10 TO
20 DEGREES BELOW MID-OCTOBER AVERAGES WILL BE FOUND TODAY AND
THURSDAY, SUPPORTING ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ROCKIES AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WEST. AS COLDER AIR REACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
ON THURSDAY, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA, SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER
6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT, EXTENDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST, RAIN/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE FROM NEBRASKA INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS
WHILE ALSO POSING A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING FROM HIGH RAINFALL
RATES. AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MIDWEST ON THURSDAY WITH A RENEWED SURGE IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY OCCURRING NEAR THE NEBRASKA SURFACE LOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KANSAS WITH FLASH FLOODING BECOMING A
CONCERN TO THE NORTH, IN AND AROUND THE MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY.
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S., A SURFACE LOW ALONG A WARM
FRONT IN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY, COINCIDING WITH
A SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. AREAS
OF RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN GULF COAST INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS ALABAMA, GEORGIA AND
SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE, IS EXPECTED FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
FARTHER NORTH, A CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS JUST NORTH THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST TODAY. SHOWERS BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR ONE MORE DAY TODAY FOLLOWED BY A
TEMPORARY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, COOLER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AND
MORE RAIN WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, SPREADING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTTO
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