855
FXUS01 KWBC 120752
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EDT THU OCT 12 2023
VALID 12Z THU OCT 12 2023 - 12Z SAT OCT 14 2023
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL, SEVERE
WEATHER, AND EVEN HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...
...HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITING INTO THE PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY WHILE USHERING IN A MYRIAD OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST THAT ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT
THERE WILL BE INCREASING COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CARRY
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER AND THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAVE MARGINAL
AND SLIGHT RISKS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY WITH THE AREA SHIFTING
EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
EASTERN KANSAS WITH FLASH FLOODING BECOMING A CONCERN TO THE
NORTH, IN/AROUND THE MIDDLE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. HEAVY RAINFALL
SHOULD SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING/EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL IN THE WAKE
OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS COLDER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WHICH MAY ALLOW RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS
SYSTEM, MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, INTO THE MIDWEST AND EAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
AFTERNOON MAXIMUMS IN THE 70S LIKELY OR EVEN THE 80S FOR SOME.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL INTERACT WITH A SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE TO CONTINUE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. MANY
LOCATIONS COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. INSTABILITY NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ITSELF SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA.
FARTHER NORTH, A CLOSED LOW WHICH HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS JUST NORTH THE GREAT LAKES WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO
MOVE EAST. SHOWERS BENEATH THE CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE DOWNWIND
OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY, BUT THE REST OF THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN VERMONT TO MAINE. COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST INTO THE END OF THE WEEK UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER LOW AS
IT SLIDES EASTWARD.
CAMPBELL/SANTORELLI
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page