277
FXUS01 KWBC 121938
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 PM EDT THU OCT 12 2023
VALID 00Z FRI OCT 13 2023 - 00Z SUN OCT 15 2023
...SIGNIFICANT FALL WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
WEATHER TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST, WITH
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND STRONG WINDS LOCATED ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING LINGERS
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...
A DYNAMIC, LARGE, AND POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGRESSING
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO MID-ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MULTIPLE WEATHER HAZARDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GREAT PLAINS, ROCKIES, AND MIDWEST. THE ACTIVE WEATHER IS ONGOING
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
NEAR INTERSECTING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND CLASHING AIR MASSES MAY
BE CAPABLE OF CONTAINING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THESE DANGEROUS STORMS RESIDES
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA, AS WELL AS NEARBY NORTHERN
KANSAS, WESTERN IOWA, AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI. HERE, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. ADDITIONALLY, SLOW-MOVING STORMS AND WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS A SIMILAR AREA. BY FRIDAY, THE HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE MIDWEST
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES, ALONG WITH A LESSER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WHEN COMPARED TO TONIGHT. PLACES SUCH AS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS INCLUDING CHICAGO, COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF
RAIN AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PIVOT AROUND THE EASTERN AND
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL ENTER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY TO START THE WEEKEND,
WITH MAIN IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND
LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
END OF THE WEEK, GUSTY WINDS OVER THE PLAINS AND WINTRY WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE ROCKIES COULD LEAD TO A FEW TRAVEL HEADACHES. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THIS HAS PROMPTED HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND
ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED. THESE WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS, DAMAGE
PROPERTY, CAUSE POWER OUTAGES, AND CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR
HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. ADDITIONALLY, THESE STRONG WINDS WHEN
COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY VEGETATION MAY LEAD TO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT AND STRETCH FROM NEW
MEXICO TO CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FIRST MAJOR HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS
ALSO ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE COLD AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
HEAVY SNOW IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
WYOMING AND COLORADO, WITH SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND PINE RIDGE OF NORTHWEST
NEBRASKA.
ELSEWHERE, A SLOWLY PROGRESSING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN
FLORIDA IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OVER THE SUNSHINE STATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALTHOUGH,
ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LESS ORGANIZED BY FRIDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN AND SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING ASSOCIATED WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
TORNADOES. WET WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF MAINE.
SNELL
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