621
FXUS01 KWBC 130829
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2023
VALID 12Z FRI OCT 13 2023 - 12Z SUN OCT 15 2023
...POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST
TODAY...
...SOME HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY AS THE LOW RE-INTENSIFIES NEAR THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY...
A LARGE AND POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THE FIRST OF ITS KIND SO
FAR THIS FALL SEASON, IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AS WELL AS STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
REACH PEAK INTENSITY EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY EASTWARD, REACHING THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE ON SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, AND
THEN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SATURDAY WELL IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. MEANWHILE, THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW CENTER AS
COLDER AND DRIER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE STORM. HIGH WIND
WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ADDITION, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, IMPACTING MANY
AREAS ACROSS THE MIDWEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE POSSIBILITY
FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE NEAR THE INTERSECTING
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND CLASHING AIR MASSES WHERE LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO
SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY WITH A BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN
THE DAY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND THEN QUICKLY SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE WAVE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING NEAR A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD UP THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH TODAY AND
SATURDAY, THEN MERGE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW EARLY ON SUNDAY.
THIS INTERACTION WILL RESULT IN A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE COOL AND BLUSTERY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS RUSH INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE, A LARGE AREA OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST TO EXTEND WELL BEHIND THE EXITING
STORM THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
GREAT LAKES WITH COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BUT SLOW IMPROVEMENT
IN THE WEATHER DURING THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE, COLD AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS
ALREADY BROUGHT THE FIRST MAJOR HIGH ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR WESTERN
U.S. ON THE OTHER HAND, RAIN IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A WEAKENING FRONT. SOME OF THE RAIN
WILL EXTEND FARTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY TODAY
BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
KONG
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