944
FXUS01 KWBC 131957
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT FRI OCT 13 2023
VALID 00Z SAT OCT 14 2023 - 00Z MON OCT 16 2023
..THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...THERE IS A FREEZE WARNINGS/WATCHES OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LOW
WILL PULL MOISTURE INTO THE MIDWEST, CREATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE,
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF IOWA.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ON SATURDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES SLIGHTLY
AND THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ENDS. HOWEVER, RAIN DEVELOPS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND THE MID-ATLANTIC. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SCATTERED
RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE, ON FRIDAY EVENING, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CREATE MAINLY RAIN OVER PARTS OF ALABAMA, GEORGIA,
SOUTH CAROLINA, AND NORTHERN FLORIDA, MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. FURTHER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA THAT WILL LINGER INTO
SUNDAY.
FURTHERMORE, A FRONT OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE CLOSE TO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING BY
SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL AID IN
CREATING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FINALLY, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
PRODUCE CALM WIND AND CLEAR SKIES, PROMPTING FREEZE
WARNINGS/WATCHES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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