239
FXUS01 KWBC 151935
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
335 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2023
VALID 00Z MON OCT 16 2023 - 00Z WED OCT 18 2023
...A COOL AND CRISP AUTUMN AIR-MASS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE
EASTERN U.S AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH; SCATTERED SHOWERS IN PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST, GREAT LAKES, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
...WARM AND DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S. BUT RAINY
CONDITIONS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST; TRENDING WARMER IN THE
GREAT PLAINS...
A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC AND A DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NATION'S HEARTLAND ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR AN
EXPANSIVE FIELD OF NORTHERLY WINDS FUNNELING AN AUTUMN-LIKE
AIR-MASS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. MONDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL DIP AS LOW AS THE FREEZING MARK IN PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, PROMPTING FROST ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS TO
BE ISSUED FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. FARTHER
EAST, LOWS WILL BE MORE COMMONLY IN THE 40S BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL AVERAGE 5-15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME PORTIONS OF
THE TN VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS COOL AS 20-25 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WILL SPAWN HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY, EASTERN GREAT LAKES, APPALACHIANS, AND NORTHEAST ON MONDAY
WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY.
WHILE THE EAST PLUNGES INTO A MORE AUTUMN-LIKE TEMPERATURE REGIME,
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE WEST IS SET TO FOSTER MORE
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK-WEEK.
DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO JUMP AS HIGH AS 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND BOTH THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST
INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY, SO WILL THE ABNORMALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FROM THE DAKOTAS TO 80S IN THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE DOME OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL ALSO PLAY A BIG ROLE IN MAINTAINING A DRY FIRST HALF TO THE
UPCOMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE HEARTLAND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
IS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHERE A POTENT NORTHEAST PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM DELIVERS PERIODS OF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION ON
MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY AS FAR INLAND AS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS
ROUND OF RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR DROUGHT-STRICKEN PORTIONS
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MULLINAX
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