296
FXUS01 KWBC 200727
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
326 AM EDT FRI OCT 20 2023
VALID 12Z FRI OCT 20 2023 - 12Z SUN OCT 22 2023
...STORM SYSTEM TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST
INTO THE WEEKEND...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, RECORD-TYING/BREAKING WARMTH FOR MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL-WESTERN U.S...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WITH TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL-WESTERN U.S. WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST AND MORE ABOVE AVERAGE,
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING WARMTH TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
LENGTH OF THE FRONT. IN THE MEANTIME, AN ORGANIZING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS WILL HELP PROMOTE ONSHORE
FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, ADDING A SECOND FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL LOW SHIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. RAPID CONSOLIDATION/DEEPENING OF
THIS LOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY WILL HELP TO
ENHANCE THE FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW
ENGLAND, BRINGING THE THREAT FOR MUCH HEAVIER RAINFALL AND AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO TURN A BIT
BLUSTERY FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM. SOME LINGERING LAKE-EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WILL BE MILD AND IN
THE 60S AND 70S, WITH 50S BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 50S AND 60S
FOR THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA WILL BE DRY BY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
PUSHES OFF THE COAST. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND IN THE
70S AND 80S FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHILE WARMER HIGHS
INTO THE 80S ARE FORECAST WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 20-30 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE OCTOBER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S.
FRIDAY. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE IN THE 60S AND 70S FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, THE 70S FOR THE GREAT BASIN, THE 80S FOR THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, THE 80S AND 90S FOR INTERIOR CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/TEXAS, AND INTO THE LOW 100S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
NUMEROUS RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST WILL BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THESE AREAS ON
SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE, WHILE CONDITIONS WILL MODERATE A BIT AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS, HIGHS WILL STILL BE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
WITH A FEW MORE RECORD-TYING/BREAKING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FROM
THE GREAT BASIN/DESERT SOUTHWEST EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
TEXAS. THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SATURDAY, INCREASING
IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT
PUSHES INLAND.
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