302
FXUS01 KWBC 210800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EDT SAT OCT 21 2023
VALID 12Z SAT OCT 21 2023 - 12Z MON OCT 23 2023
...SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST SATURDAY, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN
NEW ENGLAND...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S...
...INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE.
THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE COAST
OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY, HELPING TO ENHANCE MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW AND INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL. A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1/4) REMAINS IN PLACE
FOR MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND FOR AN ISOLATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
MEANWHILE, BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ALSO
LEAD TO SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS IN FAVORABLE LAKE-EFFECT REGIONS. THE
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
INTO THE DAY SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO CANADA,
LINGERING LONGEST FOR NEW ENGLAND. CONDITIONS WILL BE A BIT COOL
FOR THE REGION FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND 50S FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND
INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGHS WILL BE RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE BY AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES THIS
WEEKEND FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S. AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY ARE IN
THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE GREAT
BASIN, ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. IT WILL FEEL MORE
LIKE SUMMER FURTHER SOUTH, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S FOR THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SOME LOW 100S IN
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SOME RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS A BIT, BUT STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA WITH
70S AND SOME LOW 80S EXPECTED.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING, HELPING TO ADVANCE A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SOUTHEASTWARD, BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES. HIGHER
MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS MAY START TO SEE SNOW MIX IN BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. AFTER THE NOTED MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY,
HIGHS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH EVEN SOME
UPPER 50S POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
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