917
FXUS01 KWBC 221940
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 PM EDT SUN OCT 22 2023
VALID 00Z MON OCT 23 2023 - 00Z WED OCT 25 2023
...IMPACTFUL SNOW TO ENTER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST, NORTHERN
ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
...HEAVY RAIN CHANCES AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL INCREASES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS WEEK...
...FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT...
A BUSY WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES TO START THE WORKWEEK, WITH
IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER MAKING AN APPEARANCE. A COLD AIRMASS
LOCATED OVER WESTERN CANADA SINKING SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH A DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL LOW SWINGING OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES, AS WELL AS INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF
MONTANA INTO MIDWEEK. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BECOME MORE
CERTAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BUT PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 8
INCHES OF SNOW ARE HIGH (70-90%) ACROSS THE CASCADES AND
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING
ARE ALSO HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WESTERN MONTANA. BE SURE TO
PREPARE FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS IF RESIDING OR TRAVELING TO
THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THIS IS LIKELY THE ONE
OF THE FIRST WIDESPREAD IMPACTFUL SNOWSTORMS OF THE SEASON.
MEANWHILE, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WILL INCLUDE ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTENT EARLY THIS WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM
NORMA CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL BEGINS ON MONDAY ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS,
INCLUDING THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND ROLLING PLAINS. A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REGION
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY, AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. A FEW INCHES OF RAIN DUE TO REPEATING STORMS
CAPABLE OF CONTAINING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES COULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING FROM SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO
NORTHWEST TEXAS, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL ALSO EXTEND NORTHWARD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
NATION. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S., WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY COULD
START OUT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THUS, FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
SNELL
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