990
FXUS01 KWBC 232007
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT MON OCT 23 2023
VALID 00Z TUE OCT 24 2023 - 00Z THU OCT 26 2023
...A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY
SNOWFALL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...
...MUCH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BY MIDWEEK
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. AS MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND THE EASTERN U.S...
A CONSIDERABLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ENSUING ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF STORM
SYSTEMS ADVANCING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OUT
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THE TOWARD THE MIDWEST. IN FACT, MULTIPLE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EJECT ACROSS AREAS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL
COMBINE WITH THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCE OF A MUCH COLDER POLAR AIRMASS
DROPPING DOWN FROM WESTERN CANADA TO DRIVE A SIGNIFICANT EARLY
SEASON WINTER STORM.
HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN BY LATER TUESDAY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE CASCADES EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND THE
MOISTURE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL ALLOW HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THEN OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND AS FAR EAST AS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BY LATER ON WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AS MUCH AS
12 TO 18 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREAS OF MONTANA, WITH SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EXPECTING TO SEE
TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, THE SOUTHWARD
ADVANCE OF POLAR AIR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST U.S. WILL BRING LOCALLY
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY BELOW NORMAL.
THIS WILL BE THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR THESE AREAS
AS SOME LOCATIONS OVER MONTANA SEE TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
A STRONG FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WHICH WILL SEPARATE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR WITH WHAT
WILL BE A CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS POOLING OVER
THE SOUTH, AND EVENTUALLY LARGE AREA OF THE EASTERN U.S. OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, THE REMNANT ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE NORMA WILL BE EJECTING EAST ACROSS MEXICO
AND WELL NORTHEAST OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS GOING THROUGH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME OF THIS ALSO ADVANCING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL DRIVE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR ESPECIALLY AREAS OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WHERE LOCALLY A FEW INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED. SOME AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A
COMBINATION OF NORMA'S REMNANTS AND THE ADVANCE OF MULTIPLE FRONTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS WORK IN TANDEM TO DRIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME OF THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY GET INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AS WELL AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE WARM-SECTOR AIRMASS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH AND GRADUALLY
AREAS OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOCATIONS LIKELY SEEING NEAR RECORD-HIGH
TEMPERATURES. MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S
AND 80S, WITH SOME AREAS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SEEING HIGH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 90S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ORRISON
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