252
FXUS01 KWBC 240801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT TUE OCT 24 2023
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 24 2023 - 12Z THU OCT 26 2023
...A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY
SNOWFALL LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST, NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN PLAINS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. MID-WEEK...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL HELP DRIVE A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM FROM
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR ALREADY
IN PLACE, THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL
HELP TO BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN SO THAT HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
FOR LOWER ELEVATION VALLEYS AND THE PLAINS IN ADDITION TO THE
MOUNTAINS. FORECAST STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL RANGES BETWEEN 5-10",
LOCALLY 12", FROM WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND EASTERN MONTANA INTO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN MONTANA, WITH AS MUCH AS 1-2 FEET
FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN CASCADES.
SNOW MAY MIX IN FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST BUT
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, WHILE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL LIKELY SPREAD FURTHER EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE AN EARLY WINTER BLAST, WITH HIGHS ONLY
INTO THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS BY WEDNESDAY FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY
BUT A BIT MORE MODERATE IN THE NORTHWEST, WITH MOSTLY 40S AND LOW
50S EXPECTED.
TO THE EAST, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AS A BROAD WARM SECTOR REMAINS
IN PLACE AHEAD OF A PAIR OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS. A DEEP UPPER-TROUGH
THAT HAS DUG INTO NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO HELP SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD STORMS AHEAD OF A PACIFIC FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE AIDED FROM THE REMNANTS
OF NORMA WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WITH REPEATED
ROUNDS OF STORMS UNDER BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS. SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND NORTHEASTWARD INTO OKLAHOMA
WHERE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING EXISTS, PARTICULARLY AS SOME OF THESE
AREAS SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL OVER MULTIPLE DAYS. FURTHER
NORTH, A SECONDARY LOCAL MAXIMA OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WHERE MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW MEETS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
OVER THE REGION. ENERGETIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY WILL HELP LEAD TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY WITH A
MARGINAL RISK WEDNESDAY AS SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE HERE AS WELL.
IN CONTRAST TO THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL HELP
CONTINUE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THE CENTRAL U.S. AND BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER A CHILLY MORNING
MANY LOCATIONS DROPPING INTO THE 30S FOR THE NORTHEAST, HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE 60S TUESDAY WITH 70S BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S ARE FORECAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST,
WITH 80S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO
FLORIDA, WITH 70S AND 80S FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE NEAR
AVERAGE FOR CALIFORNIA INTO THE GREAT BASIN, WITH 60S AND 70S
EXPECTED, AND 80S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
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