264
FXUS01 KWBC 242000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT TUE OCT 24 2023
VALID 00Z WED OCT 25 2023 - 00Z FRI OCT 27 2023
.HEAVY SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO NORTHERN PLAINS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST-CENTRAL CANADA AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY
WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER, THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH WILL BE 20 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO NORTHERN PLAINS. IN ADDITION, THE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE A LONG-DURATION WINTER STORM THAT WILL BEGIN ON TUESDAY
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FURTHERMORE, THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (80 PERCENT PLUS) FOR MORE
THAN 8 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH LOCALLY 1-2 FEET LIKELY, IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE CASCADES AND PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AS FAR SOUTH
AS WYOMING. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL AT MANY OF
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES.
MOREOVER, MULTIPLE WAVES OF HEAVY SNOW WILL STRETCH ACROSS MONTANA
AND INTO NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. BANDS
OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR HAVE A HIGH CHANCE (70
PERCENT PLUS) OF PRODUCING MORE THAN 8 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IN THIS
REGION, WITH A LOW CHANCE (10-30 PERCENT) OF LOCALLY 18 INCHES.
THESE BANDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DIFFICULT TRAVEL DUE TO
SNOW-COVERED OR ICY ROADS AND POOR VISIBILITY.
MEANWHILE, FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, A FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WILL POOL MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE
STREAMING OVER THE PLAINS WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE
MOST VULNERABLE.
ALSO, THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT DECREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
ON THURSDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE WILL
POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ELSEWHERE, EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
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HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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