623
FXUS01 KWBC 251924
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 PM EDT WED OCT 25 2023
VALID 00Z THU OCT 26 2023 - 00Z SAT OCT 28 2023
..HEAVY SNOW FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE 20 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE OVER WEST-CENTRAL CANADA AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY
WILL AID IN PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER, THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH WILL BE 20 TO 35 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. IN ADDITION, THE
SNOW AND COLD WILL PRODUCE A LONG-DURATION WINTER STORM THAT WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY BEFORE ENDING ON FRIDAY.
FURTHER, PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING MAY LEAD
TO DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW-COVERED OR ICY ROADS
AND POOR VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. MOREOVER, THERE IS A
HIGH CHANCE GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL 8
INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVER NORTHWEST WYOMING AND MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN
TO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL BY 20-30 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF MONTANA INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.
FURTHERMORE, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND
HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THAT WILL WIND DOWN BY THURSDAY
MORNING.
MEANWHILE, FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE NUMEROUS AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING. FURTHERMORE, MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY
AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
ON THURSDAY, A FRONT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WILL HAVE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY,
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, ON THURSDAY, FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND
SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ON FRIDAY, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE TO THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE, EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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