976
FXUS01 KWBC 260746
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
345 AM EDT THU OCT 26 2023
VALID 12Z THU OCT 26 2023 - 12Z SAT OCT 28 2023
...SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM CONTINUES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY, TAPERING
OFF FRIDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING FOR
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE EAST AS WINTER-LIKE
COLD SPREADS SOUTHWARD IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
BOUTS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PLAINS THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF 4-8 INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER, IS
EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA. ANOTHER 8-12 INCHES OF SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE LOCAL
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA, WYOMING, AND NORTHERN
UTAH. HEAVY SNOW RATES OF 1"/HR AS WELL AS SOME BLUSTERY WINDS MAY
LEAD TO LOW VISIBILITY AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE SNOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH SOME SNOW LINGERING FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
A WET AND STORMY PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AS ENERGETIC SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT, HELPING TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND LEADING TO TWO LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE FIRST WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ENHANCING RAINFALL TOTALS,
PARTICULARLY AS STORMS TEND TO CLUSTER AND REPEAT OVER THE SAME
AREAS. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE INCREASINGLY BECOME WETTER AFTER
MULTIPLE DAYS OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. SLIGHT RISKS OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TO EASTERN TEXAS THURSDAY AND NORTHERN TEXAS FRIDAY WHERE
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING EXISTS. A SECOND LOCAL MAXIMA WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WHERE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW MEETS A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE REGION. AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY WILL ALSO
HELP ENCOURAGE STORM DEVELOPMENT, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF A FEW
INCHES POSSIBLE AS STORMS TRAVEL ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. SIMILAR
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN
PLACE THURSDAY AS THIS AREA HAS SEEN MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL RECENTLY, HELPING TO ENHANCE CONCERNS FOR THE RISK OF
SOME FLASH FLOODING.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER THE EAST WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. FORECAST
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND; THE 70S TO LOW 80S FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC; AND THE 80S
FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE
SOUTHEAST. SOME RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC. IN CONTRAST, BITTERLY COLD, WINTER-LIKE AIR WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT EVEN AS THE WINTER STORM TAPERS OFF. FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY FROM MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AND THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS WILL ONLY GET TO THE 20S, WITH MORNING LOWS FOR SOME AREAS
DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. BLUSTERY WINDS MAY LEAD TO
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS AT TIMES. AFTER MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY, HIGHS WILL DROP
INTO THE 40S FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD. MUCH
COLDER, WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO FOLLOW A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WEST. FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN WILL BE
IN THE 40S, WITH 50S AND 60S ALONG THE WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH 70S AND 80S
EXPECTED.
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