425
FXUS01 KWBC 261958
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EDT THU OCT 26 2023
VALID 00Z FRI OCT 27 2023 - 00Z SUN OCT 29 2023
...SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM CONTINUES FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, TAPERING OFF
FRIDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE THREAT OF SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING FROM
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES...
...A VERY WARM WEEKEND IN THE EAST WHILE ARCTIC AIRMASS DESCENDS
UPON THE WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS...
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST TONIGHT
BEFORE ENDING ON FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW NEAR 1"/HER ARE
LIKELY (60-90% CHANCE) IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT DUE TO SNOW-COVERED OR ICY ROADS
AND POOR VISIBILITY IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
20-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS WILL BE COMMON OVER MUCH OF MONTANA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE WINTER STORM OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
RIDING UP THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15% CHANCE)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN TEXAS AND EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN, BUT
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING. AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS (INCLUDING THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH METRO) THROUGH
THE ARKLATEX AND INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS, WHERE 1-2" OF RAINFALL
OVER RELATIVELY MOIST SOILS FROM ANTECEDENT RAIN COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. THIS FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THAT AREA. A SLIGHT RISK IS IN EFFECT FROM THIS REGION BACK
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OVERLAPPING THREAT FROM
THE DAY BEFORE.
TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS PRE-FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TONIGHT BEFORE THE
POTENTIALLY RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES SHIFT INTO THE
NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH TO RECORD BREAKING
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE A BIT
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. THE APPROACHING CENTRAL U.S. COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO DRAW UP WARM GULF AIR INTO THE SOUTHEAST. PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MAY EXPERIENCE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY.
KEBEDE
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