906
FXUS01 KWBC 280627
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2023
VALID 12Z SAT OCT 28 2023 - 12Z MON OCT 30 2023
...HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND FRONT RANGE THIS WEEKEND...
...BITTER EARLY SEASON COLD SNAP SPREADS FURTHER ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GREAT PLAINS AND ROCKIES, WHILE RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH IS
FOUND ACROSS THE EAST AND GULF COAST...
...VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS CALIFORNIA BY
SUNDAY WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRE ACTIVITY...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IMPACTING THE NATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL BE A STRONG AUTUMN FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESPONSIBLE FOR
SEPARATING RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH IN THE DEEP SOUTH AND EAST FROM
EARLY SEASON ARCTIC AIR DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS FRONT WILL BE SETTLING SOUTH AND
EAST WITH TIME AND WILL DRIVE AN ELONGATED AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FOCUSED AREA OF HEAVY RAIN OCCURING THIS
MORNING OVER PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND NEAR THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH
METRO ALSO EXPERIENCED POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ON FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING. THUS, A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS. GRADUALLY, THESE
HEAVY RAINS WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONT. LOCALLY A FEW INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT, AND GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN, SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH SUNDAY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY
AND TENNESSSE.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BANKS UP AGAINST THE ROCKIES AND THE
FRONT RANGE, AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY AND EJECTING EAST OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS ON SUNDAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND FRONT RANGE WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER AMOUNTS SPREADING ACROSS THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF WESTERN COLORADO, WHERE AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
ALOS EXTEND INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND DENVER METROPOLITAN AREA DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 6 AND 14
INCHES. LESSER AMOUNTS UP TO AS MUCH AS 4 TO 6 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO AND INTO THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS.
ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS
VERY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES SURGE SOUTHWARD WITHIN AN AREA OF
SHOWERS LOCATED NORTH OF LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS HAS LED
TO THE ISSUANCE OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES INTO PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL PRODUCE PLENTY OF COLD
AIR FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED SNOWFALL, WHILE ALSO LEADING TO SINGLE
DIGIT LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS PARTS OF MONTANA, WYOMING, AND NORTH
DAKOTA. A FEW DAILY LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THIS MORNING.
THIS SAME AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE GREAT BASIN AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
ARRIVE AS A RESULT, BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD, MUCH
DRIER AIR ALONG WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL SET UP A SANTA ANA WIND EVENT FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY, AND WILL RESULT IN A DEVELOPING CRITICAL
THREAT OF WILDFIRE ACTIVITY FOR THE TRANSVERSE RANGES AND THE LOS
ANGELES BASIN.
ELSEWHERE, AND OPPOSITE OF THE BITTER COLD IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S., SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL CREATE DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES 10 TO 30 DEGREES ABOVE
LATE-OCTOBER AVERAGES. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO
THE LOW-TO-MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND COULD BREAK NUMEROUS
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. A QUICK REPRIEVE BACK TO COLDER
WEATHER THOUGH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A LIKELIHOOD FOR SCATTERED AREAS
OF SHOWERS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS REGION. MEANWHILE,
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST SHOULD
REMAIN VERY WARM THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS HERE STAYING IN THE 80S
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
SNELL
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