357
FXUS01 KWBC 290755
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
354 AM EDT SUN OCT 29 2023
VALID 12Z SUN OCT 29 2023 - 12Z TUE OCT 31 2023
...HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE AREAS OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPAN FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN MAINE ON
MONDAY...
...VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS CALIFORNIA WILL
INCREASE THE THREAT OF WILDFIRE ACTIVITY...
...RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY AS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ENVELOP THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES...
MOST OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IMPACTING THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY
PROGRESSING SOUTH AND EAST ALONG WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. CONTAINS A REPOSITORY
OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
COUNTRY AS THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SPANS FROM THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS AIDING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING. HEAVY
SNOW REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF
COLORADO, PARTICULARLY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND FRONT RANGE.
THE HIGHEST ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS TODAY ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR
ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS, WHERE THERE IS A A HIGH
PROBABILITY (>70%) FOR MORE THAN 4 INCHES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UP
TO AN ADDITIONAL FOOT OF SNOW. WINTER STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR PARTS OF COLORADO THIS MORNING, WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES SPANNING FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
IN ORDER TO ACCOUNT FOR LIGHT SNOW AND/OR LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
IMPACT A LARGE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALONG AREAS WITH RECENTLY DAMPENED SOIL MAY
LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING FROM THE TEXAS
TRIANGLE TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. HERE, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY ALONG THE
FRONT AND PROGRESSES NORTHEAST, ADVANCING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL OVERLAP WITH A COLDER AIRMASS ENTERING NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE COLD ENOUGH OVER NORTHERN
MAINE TO SUPPORT MODERATE SNOWFALL AND POTENTIALLY THE FIRST
SIGNIFICANT SNOW OF THE SEASON. PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 4 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL BY MONDAY NIGHT ARE HIGH (>80%) THROUGHOUT THE NORTH
WOODS REGION OF MAINE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
MEANWHILE, THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO ENTER THE GREAT LAKES
WITHIN THE RELATIVELY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE COULD LEAD TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS THROUGHOUT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BETWEEN MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CALIFORNIA
TODAY AND PRODUCE SANTA ANA WINDS THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH HAS PROMPTED
HIGH WIND WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THESE
CONDITIONS ALSO EQUATE TO A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME FIRE GROWTH IF A FIRE STARTS. WINDY
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK THROUGH HALLOWEEN INCLUDES WIDESPREAD
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREADING THE EAST COAST, WITH POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING
WARMTH REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC FOR A FEW
ADDITIONAL DAYS. NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AS HIGHS
SO INTO THE MID-80S TODAY BEFORE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ENTER ON
TUESDAY. PUMPKINS, GHOULS, AND GOBLINS WILL LIKELY WAKE UP TO A
VISIT FROM JACK FROST ON HALLOWEEN AS SUB-FREEZING LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY, AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
AND OHIO VALLEYS.
SNELL
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