970
FXUS01 KWBC 310730
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 AM EDT TUE OCT 31 2023
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 31 2023 - 12Z THU NOV 02 2023
...CRISP AUTUMN AIRMASS TO LEAD TO A SHIVERING HALLOWEEN
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES...
...SNOW SHOWERS TO SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF THE
MIDWEST...
...ATMOSPHERIC RIVER USHERS IN WET WEATHER TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BY MIDWEEK...
THE SPOOKIEST DAY ON THE CALENDAR MAY HAVE A FEW TRICKS THIS TIME
AS RECORD-BREAKING COLD SPREADS ITS EERIE TOUCH FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. A ROBUST HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND A SHARP COLD
FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
BRISK CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 10 TO 30
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE EVERYWHERE EAST OF THE ROCKIES (EXCLUDING
FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA). THIS EQUATES TO HALLOWEEN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST, WITH 30S IN
THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE
NIGHT DESCENDS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLINGLY COLD WHILE DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, GIVING EVEN THE BRAVEST
LATE-NIGHT TRICK-OR-TREATERS A SHIVER. LOWS IN THE 30S WILL BE
FOUND THROUGHOUT THE EAST COAST AND GULF COAST STATES. THESE
TEMPERATURES COULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY RECORDS INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING FROM TEXAS TO WEST VIRGINIA, WITH ADDITIONAL COLD RECORDS
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE EXPECTED COLD WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH FROST AND TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. MANY AREAS
WILL END THEIR GROWING SEASON OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC, INCLUDING PARTS OF THE DEEP
SOUTH. EXPOSED WATER PIPES WILL ALSO BE AT RISK OF FREEZING OR
BURSTING IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN. FREEZE WARNINGS AND
WATCHES AS WELL AS FROST ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. THE COLD AND
DRY AIRMASS WHEN COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER DANGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES, PROMPTING RED
FLAG WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED.
WITHIN THIS COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE, A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CUTTING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TODAY WILL
PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW COULD BE
LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO
LEAD TO A WINTRY NIGHT OF TRICK-OR-TREATING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. REMEMBER THAT THE FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON
CAN BE FRIGHTFUL, SO BE SURE TO TAKE IT SLOW WHILE TRAVELING AND
PLAN AHEAD.
ELSEWHERE, LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND COASTAL
SECTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. FEAR NOT, AS MUCH OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT
AND NOT PUT TOO MUCH OF A DAMPER ON EVENING ACTIVITIES. HEAVIER
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING TO KICK OFF THE START OF NOVEMBER. AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
MOVING ONSHORE WASHINGTON AND OREGON WILL PRODUCE A FEW INCHES OF
RAIN BY THE END OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH WARM PACIFIC AIR ALSO
RISING SNOW LEVELS ABOVE 8000 FEET SO THAT EVEN MOST OF THE
CASCADES EXPERIENCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
LASTLY, SANTA ANA WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH
MIDWEEK AFTER ONE MORE DAY OF GUSTY CONDITIONS TODAY. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WHEN
COMBINED WITH DRY VEGETATION AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN.
SNELL
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