563
FXUS06 KWBC 011918
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED NOVEMBER 01 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 07 - 11 2023
THE LATEST GEFS, CANADIAN, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
PREDICTING A 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND A TROUGH DOWNSTREAM
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC. OVER THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS), THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, PREDICTING POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT
FORECASTS SHOW INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODEL FORECASTS INDICATES NEAR
ZERO ANOMALIES OVER THE REGION. THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN PREDICTS A MORE
AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAN THE ECMWF.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF MAINLAND
ALASKA AND LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH PREDICTED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE MANUAL BLEND. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS, ADJACENT TO
ABOVE AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND FOR PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
UNDER ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWEST, UNDER PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, SUPPORTED BY THE
ECMWF REFORECAST CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF GEFS
AND ECMWF. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND THE NORTHEAST, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AS INDICATED BY THE CONSOLIDATION OF
MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND PARTS OF
THE NORTH SLOPE, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED AMPLIFIED TROUGH. NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS, UNDER THE PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS,
UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA,
OFFSET BY DECREASING 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, A VARIABLE PATTERN OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS, AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 09 - 15 2023
THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD FROM THE GEFS,
ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY, WITH DECREASING
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND AN EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN. A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
BE FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, WITH A DECREASE IN THE AMPLITUDE OF
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE WEST COAST
OF THE CONUS. A RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS PREDICTED OVER THE CONUS BY THE MANUAL
BLEND OF DYNAMICAL MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS FOR WEEK 2, WITH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION OF WEAK POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES IN THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS
OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST
DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS FOR WEEK 2, AS A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED IN THE MANUAL BLEND FORECAST.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS AS THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER
THE PACIFIC PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE WEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, UNDER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN
THE MANUAL BLEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE NOW FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST, AS MODELS PREDICT THE 500-HPA TROUGH IN YESTERDAY’S WEEK-2 FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AS PREDICTED BY DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH COAST OF
ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS AND UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INCLUDING THE ALASKA PANHANDLE,
AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS, AHEAD OF THE
PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS WITH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND, CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS
OF DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS OF HAWAII OUTSIDE OF SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE
BIG ISLAND, AS PREDICTED BY THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO ONLY FAIR OVERALL AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS ON A DE-AMPLIFYING
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IN WEEK-2, ALONG WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, AND A VARIABLE CIRCULATION PATTERN.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19931105 - 19811022 - 19601018 - 19791111 - 19521012
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19931104 - 19811020 - 19861031 - 19791110 - 19691019
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 07 - 11 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N N WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA A B COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA N A MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA N A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 09 - 15 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B A MAINE B N
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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