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FXUS06 KWBC 021915
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU NOVEMBER 02 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 08 - 12 2023
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES DUE TO RECENT
MODEL SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND A TROUGH, ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA GEOPOTENTIAL
HEIGHT ANOMALIES, DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC.
WEAK POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WHILE A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER
NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN, CENTRAL, AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UNDER EITHER
ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS OR UNDER PREDICTED
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, SUPPORTED BY THE
ECMWF REFORECAST CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF GEFS
AND ECMWF. CONVERSELY, A TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, UNDER A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF MAINLAND
ALASKA AND LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH PREDICTED SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHILE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS
DUE TO THE PREDICTED NORTHERLY FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AS INDICATED BY THE CONSOLIDATION OF MODEL
TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS, AHEAD OF
A PREDICTED AMPLIFIED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE NORTHEAST,
UTAH, AND ARIZONA, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY
MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION
REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5,DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A PERSISTENT 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 10 - 16 2023
THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
PREDICT A FAIRLY PERSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
AND SURROUNDING REGIONS. A TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, WITH A DECREASE IN THE AMPLITUDE OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. A
RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS PREDICTED OVER THE CONUS BY THE MANUAL BLEND OF
DYNAMICAL MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS FOR WEEK 2, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOCATION OF WEAK POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE
GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
FOR WEEK 2, AS A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED IN THE MANUAL BLEND FORECAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE
TEMPERATURE TOOLS AS THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC PROGRESSES EASTWARD
INTO THE WEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS, UNDER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE MANUAL BLEND, WHILE NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CONUS
UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND
LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE
TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, AS PREDICTED BY DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH SLOPE OF
ALASKA, ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONUS, AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES,
THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF MAINE AND EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH
DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW
AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE
ISLANDS OF HAWAII OUTSIDE OF SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND, AS PREDICTED
BY THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
OVERALL AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS ON A DE-AMPLIFYING 500-HPA HEIGHT
PATTERN IN WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19811019 - 19931105 - 19601019 - 19691019 - 19861101
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19691019 - 19691025 - 19861031 - 19931104 - 19601019
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 08 - 12 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N B WYOMING N N
UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 10 - 16 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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