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FXUS06 KWBC 031902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI NOVEMBER 03 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 09 - 13 2023
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES DUE TO RECENT
MODEL SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES A 500-HPA RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND A TROUGH, ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVE 500-HPA
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES, DOWNSTREAM OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE
NORTH PACIFIC. RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND WESTERN CANADA, WHILE A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER
NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA.
ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND/OR UNDER
ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A TILT TOWARD
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ALSO INDICATED OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLANS, AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, UNDERNEATH PREDICTED PREDICTED
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE REGION, SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF
REFORECAST CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF GEFS AND
ECMWF. CONVERSELY, CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED FOR
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, UNDER A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND
LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH PREDICTED SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHILE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS DUE TO THE
PREDICTED NORTHERLY FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AS INDICATED BY THE CONSOLIDATION OF MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF OREGON AND CALIFORNIA, AHEAD
OF A PREDICTED AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS,
WHILE BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN
EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY MOST
DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF PRECIPITATION
REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5,DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A PERSISTENT 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 11 - 17 2023
THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD
PREDICT A FAIRLY PERSISTENT 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
AND SURROUNDING REGIONS. A TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE FORECAST OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, WITH A DECREASE IN THE AMPLITUDE OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. A
RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS PREDICTED OVER THE CONUS BY THE MANUAL BLEND OF
DYNAMICAL MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS FOR WEEK 2, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE LOCATION OF WEAK POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE
GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF ALASKA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
FOR WEEK 2, AS A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
PREDICTED IN THE MANUAL BLEND FORECAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE TEMPERATURE
TOOLS AS THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE
WEST. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND, UNDER
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE MANUAL BLEND, WHILE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
FAVORED FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND LIKELY FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, AS
PREDICTED BY DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALASKA, AND FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
THE CONUS, AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
NORTHEAST, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH SOUTHERLY MOISTURE FLOW AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE,
SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS OF HAWAII OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND, AS PREDICTED BY THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR
OVERALL AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODEL FORECASTS ON A DE-AMPLIFYING 500-HPA HEIGHT
PATTERN IN WEEK-2.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19691019 - 19861031 - 19571108 - 19811019 - 19691026
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19691019 - 19861031 - 19691025 - 19601108 - 19571108
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 09 - 13 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON N N NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N B NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA A B WYOMING N B
UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA N B MISSOURI N N
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N B
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B A RHODE IS B N
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 11 - 17 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A N NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N B
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE B B
MASS B N CONN N N RHODE IS B N
PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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