599
FXUS06 KWBC 062002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST MON NOVEMBER 06 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 12 - 16 2023
TODAY’S GEFS, CMCE, AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF THE 500-HPA ANOMALY FIELD ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AT
THE PERIOD OUTSET AN AMPLIFIED WAVETRAIN IS DEPICTED EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA ALL THE WAY AROUND THE NORTHERN LATITUDES TO NEAR ICELAND.
OVER NORTH AMERICA A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST, CENTRAL CANADA, AND OFF THE EAST COAST IS FORECAST. OVER THE COURSE OF
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THIS WAVETRAIN INITIALLY DEEPENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD, THEN
BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND DE-AMPLIFY. DESPITE MODEL-TO-MODEL DIFFERENCES,
THEY ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE INITIAL DEEPENING AND SUBSEQUENT
EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS WAVETRAIN.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS A WEAK TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S., AS WELL AS WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE COASTS. SOUTH TEXAS ALSO
LEANS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, RELATED TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM
A SOUTHWARD-DISPLACED STORM TRACK LATER IN THE PERIOD. WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ALOFT AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE BERING SEA, MUCH OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ALASKA IS FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WEAK WARM
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) PERSIST NEAR AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
BROAD AND DEEPENING TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTEND EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH
MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMING ESTABLISHED DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA
RESULTS IN BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EXTENDING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
PARTICULARLY ALONG THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER EAST OF MONTANA. FOR ALASKA, STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SERIES OF SURFACE LOWS ARE DEPICTED OVER THE
BERING SEA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE WHOLE STATE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN COAST FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE
SEWARD PENINSULA. SUPPRESSION OF TROPICAL CONVECTION FOR THE HAWAII REGION DUE
TO EL NINO INFLUENCES HAVE SUBSIDED, AND THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL
NOW SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION, OFFSET BY A
FAST PROGRESSION OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND FEATURES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 14 - 20 2023
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAVORED TO DE-AMPLIFY QUITE A BIT AND SHIFT EASTWARD
RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER MOST
OF THE WEST COAST, BUT OVER A SMALLER AREA AND WITH MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE. SUCH
IS ALSO THE CASE FOR THE RIDGING OVER CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE CHUKCHI SEA, RESULTING IN A
CONTINUED ACTIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE BERING SEA AND INTO ALASKA.
CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE CONUS RESULTS IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (>70%) CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE GEFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF DEPICT A BRIEF SURGE
OF COLDER AIR ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN A TILT
TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR PORTIONS OF
CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA. WITH CONTINUED STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE BERING SEA,
MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. WEAKLY WARM SSTS PERSIST NEAR AND TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
AS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS OUT OF THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN A TILT
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CONUS WITH TROUGHING OVER
THE WEST COAST AND ABUNDANT RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO DEPICTED IN THE
MODEL ENSEMBLES. THE RIDGE’S INFLUENCE IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE PICTURE
THOUGH AND NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CONTINUED STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
A PARADE OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING OVER THE BERING SEA ARE FAVORED FOR WEEK-2,
RESULTING IN ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE WHOLE
STATE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN COAST FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE SEWARD
PENINSULA AND EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE ALASKA RANGE. SUPPRESSION OF TROPICAL
CONVECTION FOR THE HAWAII REGION DUE TO EL NINO INFLUENCES HAVE SUBSIDED, AND
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL NOW SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN AMONG DYNAMICAL MODELS, OFFSET BY WEAKER
ANOMALIES AND PROBABILITIES FROM FORECAST TOOLS.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19801106 - 19651102 - 19971118 - 19691021 - 19801031
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19801106 - 19971119 - 19651101 - 19821020 - 19731018
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 12 - 16 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B B NEW HAMP B B MAINE B B
MASS B B CONN B B RHODE IS B B
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B B VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 14 - 20 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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