500
FXUS06 KWBC 072004
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST TUE NOVEMBER 07 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 13 - 17 2023
TODAY’S GEFS, CMCE, AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF THE 500-HPA ANOMALY FIELD CONTINUE
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. AT THE PERIOD OUTSET AN AMPLIFIED WAVETRAIN IS DEPICTED EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA ALL THE WAY AROUND THE NORTHERN LATITUDES TO NEAR ICELAND.
OVER NORTH AMERICA, A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST, THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND OFF THE EAST COAST IS
FORECAST. OVER THE COURSE OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THIS WAVETRAIN INITIALLY
DEEPENS AND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD, THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND DE-AMPLIFY.
DESPITE MODEL-TO-MODEL DIFFERENCES, THEY ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE INITIAL DEEPENING AND SUBSEQUENT EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS WAVETRAIN.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST U.S. AND EASTERN MAINE
LEANS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LINGERING NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR
THE WEST COAST WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF
THE BERING SEA, MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA IS FAVORED FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST, AND NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. INCREASING ENCROACHMENT OF WEAKLY BELOW-NORMAL SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TILTS THE BIG ISLAND
TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORED FOR THE REST OF THE ARCHIPELAGO.
BROAD AND DEEPENING TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTEND EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH TEXAS WITH MOIST
RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINNING TO SLIP UNDER THE RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND CENTRAL CANADA RESULTS IN BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED FOR MOST OF
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHICH LEANS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. FOR ALASKA, STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SERIES OF
SURFACE LOWS ARE DEPICTED OVER THE BERING SEA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD,
FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE STATE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA. SUPPRESSION
OF TROPICAL CONVECTION FOR THE HAWAII REGION DUE TO EL NINO INFLUENCES HAVE
SUBSIDED, AND THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION, OFFSET BY A
FAST PROGRESSION OF SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND FEATURES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 15 - 21 2023
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAVORED TO DE-AMPLIFY QUITE A BIT AND SHIFT EASTWARD
RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE WEST COAST, BUT OVER A SMALLER AREA AND WITH MUCH
LOWER AMPLITUDE. SUCH IS ALSO THE CASE FOR THE RIDGING OVER CANADA AND THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE
CHUKCHI SEA, RESULTING IN A CONTINUED ACTIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE BERING SEA
AND INTO ALASKA.
CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE CONUS RESULTS IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (>70%) CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE GEFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF
DEPICT A BRIEF SURGE OF COLDER AIR ALONG THE WEST COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD,
RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA. WITH CONTINUED STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE BERING SEA, MOST OF
MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
INCREASING ENCROACHMENT OF WEAKLY BELOW-NORMAL SSTS SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS TILTS THE BIG ISLAND TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE REST OF THE ISLANDS.
AS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN A TILT
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. PROBABILITIES ARE
QUITE HIGH ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST (>%60) AS MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTS
A STRONG PRECIPITATION EVENT ALONG THE COAST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
RIDGE’S INFLUENCE IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE PICTURE THOUGH AND NEAR-NORMAL TO
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST U.S. CONTINUED STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A PARADE OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING OVER THE BERING
SEA ARE FAVORED FOR WEEK-2, RESULTING IN ELEVATED CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE STATE, ESPECIALLY ALONG PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN COAST AND NORTH INTO THE ALASKAN INTERIOR. SUPPRESSION OF TROPICAL
CONVECTION FOR THE HAWAII REGION DUE TO EL NINO INFLUENCES HAVE SUBSIDED, AND
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR MOST OF THE ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN AMONG DYNAMICAL MODELS, OFFSET BY WEAKER
ANOMALIES AND PROBABILITIES FROM FORECAST TOOLS.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19801107 - 19651102 - 19971118 - 19661115 - 19731019
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19731019 - 19971120 - 20011027 - 19801106 - 19661114
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 13 - 17 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N B
VERMONT N B NEW HAMP N B MAINE N B
MASS N B CONN N B RHODE IS N B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 15 - 21 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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