306
FXUS06 KWBC 082002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST WED NOVEMBER 08 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 14 - 18 2023
TODAY’S GEFS, CMCE, AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF THE 500-HPA ANOMALY FIELD CONTINUE
TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. AT THE PERIOD’S OUTSET, AN AMPLIFIED WAVETRAIN IS DEPICTED
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA ALL THE WAY AROUND THE NORTHERN LATITUDES TO
NEAR ICELAND. OVER NORTH AMERICA, A TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN NEAR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST, THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND OFF
THE EAST COAST IS FORECAST. OVER THE COURSE OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THIS
WAVETRAIN SHIFTS EASTWARD AND DE-AMPLIFIES.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), PARTICULARLY OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR EASTERN MAINE WITH LINGERING NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE BERING SEA, MAINLAND ALASKA IS FAVORED TO
EXPERIENCE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA. INCREASING ENCROACHMENT OF SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TILTS THE BIG
ISLAND TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR THE REST OF THE ARCHIPELAGO.
BROAD AND DEEPENING TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXTEND EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH
MOIST RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINNING TO SLIP UNDER THE RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADA FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONUS. TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, TILTING ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. FOR ALASKA, STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SERIES OF
SURFACE LOWS ARE PREDICTED OVER THE BERING SEA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD,
FAVORING ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ALMOST THE WHOLE STATE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE WESTERN COAST FROM BRISTOL BAY TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA. SUPPRESSION
OF TROPICAL CONVECTION FOR THE HAWAII REGION DUE TO EL NINO INFLUENCES HAVE
SUBSIDED, AND THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE ISLANDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: VERY HIGH, 5 OUT OF 5, WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND STRONG
DAY-TO-DAY CONTINUITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 16 - 22 2023
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FAVORED TO DE-AMPLIFY QUITE A BIT AND SHIFT EASTWARD
RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WEST COAST, BUT SHIFTED EASTWARD SOMEWHAT
AND WITH MUCH LOWER AMPLITUDE. SUCH IS ALSO THE CASE FOR THE RIDGING OVER
CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG TROUGHING REMAINS OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA AND THE CHUKCHI SEA, FAVORING A CONTINUED ACTIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE
BERING SEA AND INTO ALASKA.
CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE CONUS RESULTS IN ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FOR THE ENTIRE
CONUS FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (>70%) CENTERED
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. THE GEFS AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF
DEPICT A SURGE OF COLDER AIR ALONG THE WEST COAST DURING THE PERIOD, RESULTING
IN A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND
EXTENDING IN INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN. WITH CONTINUED STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE BERING SEA, MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS TILT
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST
LIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST.
INCREASING ENCROACHMENT OF WEAKLY BELOW-NORMAL SSTS SOUTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS TILTS ODDS TOWARD BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND,
WHILE NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE REST OF THE
ISLANDS.
AS THE LARGE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THIS RESULTS IN A TILT
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. PROBABILITIES ARE
QUITE HIGH ALONG THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST (>%50) AS MODEL CONSENSUS DEPICTS
A STRONG PRECIPITATION EVENT ALONG THE COAST EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
RIDGE’S INFLUENCE IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE PICTURE THOUGH AND NEAR-NORMAL TO
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. CONTINUED
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A PARADE OF SURFACE LOWS MOVING OVER THE
BERING SEA ARE FAVORED FOR WEEK-2, RESULTING IN ELEVATED CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR ALL OF ALASKA. SUPPRESSION OF TROPICAL
CONVECTION FOR THE HAWAII REGION DUE TO EL NINO INFLUENCES HAVE SUBSIDED, AND
THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR THE ISLANDS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN AMONG DYNAMICAL MODELS AND GOOD DAY-TO-DAY
CONTINUITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS, OFFSET BY WEAKER ANOMALIES AND PROBABILITIES
FROM FORECAST TOOLS.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20091105 - 19991118 - 19521031 - 19981122 - 19971122
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20011028 - 19731020 - 20091104 - 19971121 - 19641028
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 14 - 18 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A B WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE N B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 16 - 22 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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