892
FXUS06 KWBC 092002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST THU NOVEMBER 09 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 15 - 19 2023
TODAY’S GEFS, CMCE, AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS OF THE 500-HPA ANOMALY FIELD CONTINUE
TO BE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. AT THE PERIOD’S OUTSET, AN AMPLIFIED WAVE TRAIN IS DEPICTED
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA AROUND THE NORTHERN LATITUDES TO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. IN THE 6-10 DAY AVERAGE, ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS
PREDICT AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, RIDGING
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), AND A RIDGE, AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES, CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), PARTICULARLY OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST COAST AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA, WITH MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR AND NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
SLIGHTLY ENHANCE PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEASTERN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WHILE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS.
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE STATE. A PREDICTED AMPLIFIED TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST EARLY IN
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD RESULTS IN HIGH PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR MUCH OF THE WEST, ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, AND
SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE EASTERN
GULF COAST STATES, WITH PREDICTED TROPICAL MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE REGION. THE
PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED FROM PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
UNDER PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE PRECIPITATION
CONSOLIDATION TOOL SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: VERY HIGH, 5 OUT OF 5, WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND STRONG
DAY-TO-DAY CONTINUITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 17 - 23 2023
THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS PREDICTED TO
DE-AMPLIFY AND SHIFT EASTWARD RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD BY MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS. SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST IN THE MANUAL
BLEND OF MODEL FORECASTS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA IN THE 8-14 DAY FORECAST, WITH
CONTINUED ANOMALOUS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WEAK NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES
CONTINUE INTO THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IN THE MANUAL BLEND FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, AS THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS PREDICTED TO
DE-AMPLIFY AND EXTEND INTO THE CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS DE-AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WEEK-2 MANUAL BLEND, RELATIVE TO
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD BLEND, WHILE PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA
IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD UNDER PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, AND ARIZONA, UNDER A
PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY FOR THE
EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PREDICTED IN THE MANUAL
BLEND OF MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS OF HAWAII IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY THE
TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA WITH
ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE DE-AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE BERING
SEA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED BROADLY ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS, AS THE PREDICTED HEIGHT PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AHEAD OF A BROADENING TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES TO BE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ACROSS MOST OF HAWAII OUTSIDE OF SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND, FOLLOWING THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, WITH
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMICAL MODELS ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA CIRCULATION
PATTERN AND GOOD DAY-TO-DAY CONTINUITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS, OFFSET BY
INCREASINGLY WEAKER ANOMALIES AND PROBABILITIES FROM FORECAST TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19991107 - 20091106 - 19581118 - 19981123 - 19971123
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19981120 - 20091105 - 19581118 - 19741120 - 19991107
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 15 - 19 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 17 - 23 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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