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FXUS06 KWBC 102002
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EST FRI NOVEMBER 10 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 16 - 20 2023
TODAY’S GEFS, CMCE, AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY PATTERN
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. AT THE PERIOD’S OUTSET, AN
AMPLIFIED WAVE TRAIN IS DEPICTED EXTENDING FROM NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA AROUND THE
NORTHERN LATITUDES TO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. IN THE 6-10 DAY AVERAGE, ENSEMBLE
MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS PREDICT
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, A TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC
COAST OF THE CALIFORNIA, AND A RIDGE, AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES, CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTIONS PREDICT THE TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE CONTIGUOUS U.S.
(CONUS) AT THE START OF THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE PERIOD, WITH SOME VARIATIONS
AMONG ENSEMBLE MODELS.
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST INCREASES THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH
MOIST ONSHORE FLOW FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA, UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH, AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA,
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS) SLIGHTLY ENHANCE PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SOUTHEASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WHILE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS, AS IN THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS.
AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE STATE. A PREDICTED AMPLIFIED TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST EARLY IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD RESULTS IN LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR MUCH OF THE WEST, ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, AND
SLIGHTLY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, AS THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD DURING THE PERIOD. THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL SLIGHTLY
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND, WHERE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS ON SYNOPTIC
PATTERN EVOLUTION, OFFSET BY A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AND GREATER UNCERTAINTY OVER
THE CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR NOV 18 - 24 2023
THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS PREDICTED TO EVOLVE
RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD BY DYNAMICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER MAINLAND ALASKA IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST, GIVE WAY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA WITH
INCREASINGLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WEAK NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
CONTINUE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IN THE MANUAL BLEND FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, AS THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST IS PREDICTED TO
DE-AMPLIFY AND PROGRESS INTO THE CONUS. POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS DE-AMPLIFY IN THE WEEK-2 MANUAL BLEND, RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD BLEND, LEAVING NEAR AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE EAST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND
ALASKA IN THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD UNDER PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF ALASKA, AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED TO RISE, WHILE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MAINLAND, DUE TO THE PREDICTED TROUGH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, NEVADA,
AND ARIZONA, UNDER A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE
LIKELY FOR THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
PREDICTED IN THE MANUAL BLEND OF MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS OF HAWAII IN THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA WITH
ONSHORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AS IT PROGRESSES FROM THE BERING
SEA INTO WESTERN ALASKA. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED BROADLY
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE CONUS, AS THE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST AT THE START
OF WEEK 2 PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AND THE PREDICTED
HEIGHT PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL OVER THE EAST. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AHEAD OF A BROADENING TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY
FAVORED ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, FOLLOWING THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: FORECAST CONFIDENCE: BELOW
AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, WITH GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG DYNAMICAL MODELS ON A
PROGRESSIVE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN, OFFSET BY INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AND
WEAKER PROBABILITIES FROM FORECAST TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
NOVEMBER 16.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19981120 - 19881120 - 19581118 - 20051021 - 19741118
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19881120 - 19981119 - 19581119 - 20031115 - 19741117
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 16 - 20 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR NOV 18 - 24 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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